The Forecasting Advisor offers five products to individual investors, financial planners, portfolio managers, businesses and government economists and financial institutions. The first three products are the Outlook on the Stock Market Cycle in the U.S., the Outlook on the business cycle in the United States and the Outlook on the business cycle in Canada. The last two products are the Canadian Employment Outlook by Industry and the Canadian GDP Outlook by Industry.

To get more details about the models, request the detailed research notes.

  1. Outlook on the Stock Market Cycle in the U.S.
  2. Outlook on the Business Cycle in the U.S.
  3. Outlook on the Business Cycle in Canada
  4. Canadian Employment Outlook by Industry
  5. Canadian GDP Outlook by Industry
1

Outlook on the Stock Market Cycle in the U.S.

Outlook on the Stock Market Cycle in the U.S. The Report provides the probability of a reversal in the stock market cycle in the United States to a bear or bull phase for a forecast horizon of one and two months. The probability is obtained with our exclusive model of the stock market cycle, which includes a number of U.S. economic and financial indicators, such a proprietary index of economic conditions, the unemployment rate, short-term and long-term interest rates, consumer confidence, the inflation rate, commodity prices, and the P/E ratio.

The rule to predict a reversal in the stock market is the following: when a bull (bear) phase exists, the model predicts a reversal in the stock market to a bear (bull) phase if the probability is equal to or exceeds (falls below) than 50 per cent. Otherwise, the model predicts that the bull (bear) phase will continue. A key feature of the model performance is the prediction since 1964 of all the reversals in the stock market to bear and bull phases.

The monthly Report is delivered to clients at the start of each month. In addition, the probability is calculated daily when necessary and distributed to clients to provide leading intelligence on the risk of entering in a bear market or leaving a bear market. You can view and download a sample of the Report beside.

An annual subscription to the report Outlook on the Stock Market Cycle in the U.S includes a free annual subscription to the monthly (and daily when necessary) report Outlook on the Stock Market Cycle in Canada. The research note on Forecasting the Stock Market Cycle in Canada can be obtained by contacting Robert Lamy

Annual subscription (12 monthly reports) : $299 CA

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2

Outlook on the Business Cycle in the U.S.

Outlook on the Business Cycle in the U.S. The Report provides the probability of a reversal in the business cycle in the United States for a forecast horizon of one month to three months. The probability is obtained with our proprietary model of the U.S. business cycle, which includes a number of economic indicators for the U.S., such as building permits, initial claims, consumer sentiment and the yield curve.

The rule to predict a reversal in the business cycle in the U.S. is the following: when the economy is in an expansion (recession) phase, the model predicts a reversal in the business cycle to a recession (expansion) phase if the probability is equal to or exceeds (falls below) than 50 per cent. Otherwise, the model predicts that the expansion (recession) phase will continue. A key feature of the model performance is the prediction of all the reversals in the business cycle since 1962.

The Report, along with the historical probability data, is made available in the first complete week of the current month to our clients. You can view and download a sample of the Report beside.

Annual subscription (12 monthly reports) : CA $199

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3

Outlook on the Business Cycle in Canada

Outlook on the Business Cycle in Canada The Report provides the probability of a reversal in the business cycle in Canada for a forecast horizon of one month to three months. The probability is obtained with our proprietary model of the Canadian business cycle, which includes a number of economic indicators for Canada, such as building permits, new orders, consumer sentiment and the yield curve.

The rule to predict a reversal in the business cycle in Canada is the following: when the economy is in an expansion (recession) phase, the model predicts a reversal in the business cycle to a recession (expansion) phase if the probability is equal to or exceeds (falls below) than 50 per cent. Otherwise, the model predicts that the expansion (recession) phase will continue. A key feature of the model performance is the prediction of all the reversals in the business cycle since 1962.

The Report, along with the historical probability data, is made available by the end of the third week of the current month to our clients. You can view and download a sample of the Report beside.

Annual subscription (12 monthly reports) : CA $199

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4

Canadian Employment Outlook by Industry

Canadian Employment Outlook by Industry The Report provides the industrial outlook for the rate of growth in employment for the current year and the following year. The projections for employment are provided for total industry, three sectors (manufacturing, goods and services) and thirty-two industries. The projections are obtained with our proprietary forecasting models of employment by industry.

The models include the main drivers of growth for employment, notably domestic and foreign demand, the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar and the world commodity prices. The annual projections are updated monthly to take into account the changes in the consensus forecasts for the growth drivers of employment by industry. A key feature of our models is their capacity to explain and predict the historical evolution of the rate of growth in employment by industry.

The Report is made available each month to our clients. You can view and download a sample of the Report beside.

Annual subscription (12 monthly reports)

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5

Canadian GDP Outlook by Industry

Canadian GDP Outlook by Industry The Report provides the industrial outlook for the rate of growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) for the current year and the following year. The projections for GDP are provided for total industry, three sectors (manufacturing, goods and services) and thirty-five industries. The projections are obtained with our proprietary forecasting models of GDP by industry.

The models include the main drivers of growth for GDP, notably domestic and foreign demand, the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar and the world commodity prices. The annual projections are updated monthly to take into account the changes in the consensus forecasts for the growth drivers of GDP by industry. A key feature of our models is their capacity to explain and predict the historical evolution of the rate of growth in GDP by industry.

The Report is made available each month to our clients. You can view and download a sample of the Report beside.

Annual subscription (12 monthly reports)

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